Get Out and Vote! You Can Make a Difference for Our Future

November 1, 2026

Ben Kessler  -  Ben Kessler, AFM Director of Government Affairs

Editor’s Note: While print copies of this issue may arrive in mailboxes after Election Day, this article was published online on November 1 to provide timely coverage for our readers ahead of the vote.

The state of play heading into the 2026 midterm elections in the United States is relatively simple. Republicans have very thin majorities in both the House and Senate. House Republicans enjoy a 219-214 majority. Senate Republicans hold a 53-47 majority.

Although President Donald Trump’s job approval numbers are at record lows, Democrats are fighting an uphill battle in both chambers. In the House, the largest hurdle the Democrats have to clear is redistricting. While California now has a more favorable map, failing to draw new lines in Virginia, and Republican redistricting efforts in states such as Alabama, Louisiana, Texas, and Tennessee mean a significant challenge for House Democrats.

In the Senate, the map is spectacularly unfavorable for Democrats. Nearly two-thirds of all Senate races are in states that Trump won in 2024. Most of them are in states he carried by double digits. Still, bookmakers and the American public alike assume a shift in majority in the US House of Representatives and popular thinking is inching toward favoring Senate Democrats as well.

Modern history dictates what we might expect on election night. The party controlling the White House tends to take significant losses during midterm elections. The 21st century midterms followed this model with two exceptions. In 2002, barely a year after 9/11, Republicans picked up a modest number of seats in the House and Senate. And in 2022, President Joe Biden held off a deluge, losing only nine seats in the House and picking up one in the Senate. In the other four midterms this century, the minority party won an average of nearly 37 House seats and five in the Senate. In 2018, Republicans, with a similarly favorable map, managed to gain two seats in the Senate while losing 41 in the House.

Trump’s favorability numbers are likely to make the difference. Suffering from historically low approval numbers, many are comparing this election to November 2006. Then, a seismic political shift favored Democrats because of growing economic concern amid an unpopular war. That year, Democrats won a net of 30 seats in the House and six in the Senate.

Regardless of the outcome, there will be significant change. At least 83 congressional incumbents will not return next Congress. This is the result of a myriad of reasons: those seeking other office, retirements, deaths, resignations, losing nominations, and redistricting.

The Senate Judiciary Committee, with jurisdiction over intellectual property issues, is a microcosm for the upheaval. On the Republican side of the dais, Senator John Cornyn (TX) lost his primary, Senator Thom Tillis (NC) is retiring, and Senator Marsha Blackburn (TN) is running for governor. Of note, both Tillis and Blackburn are on the Committee’s Intellectual Property Subcommittee, with Tillis serving as its chair. On the Democratic side, Senator Durbin (IL) is retiring and Senator Amy Klobuchar (MN) is running for governor. Notably, Durbin is the committee’s lead Democrat. The same is true in the House of Representatives and across Congress. Suffice it to say, we will have great opportunities to continue to cultivate new champions in the new year.

Tracking all 435 House races and the 35 Senate seats up for grabs would be nearly impossible. Expert political commentators, prognosticators, and poll aggregators, such as the Cook Political Report and Real Clear Politics, agree that the majority in the House of Representatives will come down to roughly 45 races. Those are typically rated as “toss-up” or “leaning” Democratic or Republican, as opposed to “likely” or “solid.”

Republicans are forced to defend about 75% of those seats. The Senate is likely going to turn on just seven contests: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas. At the time of writing, the Democratic candidate is polling ahead in all but one of these so-called battleground states. Kansas is the only state on this list with the Republican currently in the lead. Kansas, as a race to watch, is illustrative of a bigger picture that could mean a very good night for Congressional Democrats.

We encourage all AFM members in the US to vote this November. Please consider the candidates that best reflect your values and our union’s priorities. The members of Congress you send to Washington, DC, in 2027 may be our greatest supporters or critics for many years to come.

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